The Folly of Forecasting

The beginning of the year heralds the time for predictions.  It seems everyone has a view as to the direction of financial markets – equity, debt and FX – and each forecaster can give you a plausible explanation as to why you should believe them.  But financial markets predictions have about as much chance of success as a 4 year old playing pin the tail on the donkey: if you get it right, you have been very lucky.

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