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Monday, April 20th, 2009 - Comments Off on Herd Mentality

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Wednesday, January 28th, 2009 - Comments Off on The Folly of Forecasting

The beginning of the year heralds the time for predictions.   It seems everyone has a view as to the direction of financial markets - equity, debt and FX - and each forecaster can give you a plausible explanation as to why you should believe them.   But financial markets predictions have about as much chance of success as a 4 year old playing pin the tail on the donkey: if you get it right, you have been very lucky. Financial markets predictions have about as much chance of success as a 4 year old playing pin the tail on the ...

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